A predictive model for e-commerce consumer expenditure in EC countries

Describing and predicting consumer expenditure on a country or cross-national level has a long tradition in theoretical and applied economics and econometrics. This paper is a first attempt in describing aggregate eCommerce consumer expenditure among European Commission (EC) countries. After brief introduction of possible theoretical models which explain the variation in eCommerce consumer expenditure among observed countries, a list of important predictors has been discussed. The results generated by regression analysis show that non-traditional factors such as online time (measured by “Average online time per citizen per month”) and consumer lack of confidence, i.e. mistrust (measured by “Effects of security concerns on eCommerce”) are more reliable predictors of aggregate eCommerce consumer expenditure in EC countries than the traditional factors such as disposable income and price of the products.E-Commerce; Consumer Expenditure; European Commission

Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange

This paper investigates the behavior of stock returns in an emerging stock market namely, the Macedonian Stock Exchange, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. The conditional mean follows a GARCH-M model, while for the conditional variance one symmetric (GARCH) and four asymmetric GARCH types of models (EGARCH, GJR, TARCH and PGARCH) were tested. We examine how accurately these GARCH models forecast volatility under various error distributions. Three distributions were assumed, i.e. Gaussian, Student-t and Generalized Error Distribution. The empirical results show the following: (i) the Macedonian stock returns time series display stylized facts such as volatility clustering, high kurtosis, and low starting and slow-decaying autocorrelation function of squared returns; (ii) the asymmetric models show a little evidence on the existence of leverage effect; (iii) the estimated mean equation provide only a weak evidence on the existence of risk premium; (iv) the results are quite robust across different error distributions; and (v) GARCH models with non-Gaussian error distributions are superior to their counterparts estimated under normality in terms of their in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy.Stock market; forecasting volatility; South-Eastern Europe; GARCH models; non-Gaussian error distribution; Macedonia

Orientation of the fifteenth and sixteenth century mosques in the former Yugoslavia

The paper presents the analysis of the orientation of 60 mosques built in the XV and XVI centuries in the Balkans' region of former Yugoslavia. The mosques have been selected according to their architectural value - mostly the dome mosques that were built by the most renowned builders. Based on the geographic coordinates, the qiblas of all mosques were calculated and the azimuths of their axes measured on orthophotographs. Statistical analysis has shown that the axes of these mosques vary in the horizon sector that is five times wider than the calculated sector of the correct qibla, with a systematic deviation of -10 degrees 15' in relation to the correct qibla. Connections between deviations of the architectural design (dome mosques and other mosques), location and elevation have not been identified. However, a connection between deviations and the time of construction has been identified: deviations from the qibla are smaller in mosques built at a later date. The paper has laid the groundwork for future analysis of the causes of the aforementioned deviations: in the XV and XVI centuries there were no accurate geographic coordinates of locations and the builders were not able to calculate (take over, measure) the exact qibla direction, regardless of the method they applied

Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange

This paper investigates the behavior of stock returns in an emerging stock market namely, the Macedonian Stock Exchange, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. The conditional mean follows a GARCH-M model, while for the conditional variance one symmetric (GARCH) and four asymmetric GARCH types of models (EGARCH, GJR, TARCH and PGARCH) were tested. We examine how accurately these GARCH models forecast volatility under various error distributions. Three distributions were assumed, i.e. Gaussian, Student-t and Generalized Error Distribution. The empirical results show the following: (i) the Macedonian stock returns time series display stylized facts such as volatility clustering, high kurtosis, and low starting and slow-decaying autocorrelation function of squared returns; (ii) the asymmetric models show a little evidence on the existence of leverage effect; (iii) the estimated mean equation provide only a weak evidence on the existence of risk premium; (iv) the results are quite robust across different error distributions; and (v) GARCH models with non-Gaussian error distributions are superior to their counterparts estimated under normality in terms of their in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy

Nelinearni metodi ocenjivanja proizvodnih funkcija

Nelinearni metodi ocenjivanja proizvodnih funkcija direktno ocenjuju sve parametre jednovremeno, za razliku od pristupa baziranih na linearnim aproksimacijama, gdje se fiksiraju vrednosti pojedinih parametara ili parcijalnog ocenjivanja koeficijenata. U radu je izložen opšti pristup nelinearnim metodama ocenjivanja, pretpostavke na kojima se zasnivaju, osobine dobijenih ocena kao i statistička procedura vrednovanja dobijenih ocena

A predictive model for e-commerce consumer expenditure in EC countries

Describing and predicting consumer expenditure on a country or cross-national level has a long tradition in theoretical and applied economics and econometrics. This paper is a first attempt in describing aggregate eCommerce consumer expenditure among European Commission (EC) countries. After brief introduction of possible theoretical models which explain the variation in eCommerce consumer expenditure among observed countries, a list of important predictors has been discussed. The results generated by regression analysis show that non-traditional factors such as online time (measured by “Average online time per citizen per month”) and consumer lack of confidence, i.e. mistrust (measured by “Effects of security concerns on eCommerce”) are more reliable predictors of aggregate eCommerce consumer expenditure in EC countries than the traditional factors such as disposable income and price of the products

Prihrana u kasnu zimu stimulira brzi razvoj zajednica sive pčele (Apis mellifera carnica)

Unfavourable weather conditions after the queen starts with intensive oviposition during early spring may cause an imbalance in the division of tasks among worker bees in the bee colony. This can lead to slow spring development and poor exploitation of the main spring nectar flows. In order to accelerate the spring development, it is necessary, as a technological measure, to feed supplemental candy to bee colonies. In this research, the necessity of supplemental feeding, as well as the composition of candy (pollen and protein substitute) were analysed. Three groups of ten bee colonies each were formed - the control, unfed group, pollen candy fed and protein substitute candy fed. In the period from 22/02/2016 and 04/04/2016 three control measurements were performed during which the number of bees, the number of brood cells and weight of the bee colonies were determined. The research has shown that supplemental feeding of the bee colony in late winter in order to encourage the rapid spring development is justified. Namely, at the final measurements in April, the results showed differences between groups. The treated colonies had higher net hive weight, a greater number of bees and statistically significantly more brood cells. The results of this study confirm that the technological measure of supplemental feeding in late winter should be performed on all commercial apiaries for the production of honey, pollen, royal jelly, queen bees and bee venom.Zbog klimatskih promjena došlo je do promjena u strukturi i intenzitetu medonosnih paša. Ove promjene posljedično izazivaju neravnotežu u podjeli zadataka radilica u pčelinjoj zajednici što dalje uzrokuje spor proljetni razvoj i slabo iskorištavanje proljetnih pčelinjih paša. Kako bi se ubrzao proljetni razvoj potrebno je izvršiti tehnološku mjeru prihrane pčelinjih zajednica pogačama. U istraživanju je bila analizirana sama potreba prihrane ali i sastav pogača (peludna zamjenica i pčelinja pelud). Formirane su tri skupine sa po deset pčelinjih zajednica – kontrolna, prihranjivana pogačom s pčelinjom peludi (P) i peludnom zamjenicom (S). Između 22.2.2016. i 4.4.2016. obavljena su tri kontrolna mjerenja tijekom kojih je utvrđen broj pčela, količina legla i masa pčelinjih zajednica. Istraživanje je pokazalo opravdanost provođenja tehnološke mjere prihrane pčelinjih zajednica u kasnu zimu s ciljem poticanja brzog proljetnog razvoja. Naime, kod završnog mjerenja u travnju rezultati su pokazali statistički značajne razlike između K skupine, s jedne strane i skupina P i S, s druge strane, u svim mjerenim pokazateljima. Prihranjivane zajednice skupina P i S imale su statistički značajno veću neto masu pčelinjih zajednica, veći broj pčela i više stanica legla. Rezultati ovog istraživanja potvrđuju kako je tehnološku mjeru prihrane u kasnu zimu potrebno provoditi na svim komercijalnim pčelinjacima koji su pripremljeni za proizvodnju meda, peludi, matične mliječi, matica pčela i pčelinjeg otrova

ATTRACTIVENESS OF PHACELIA (PHACELIA TANACETIFOLIA BENTH.) FOR THE GREY HONEY BEE (APIS MELLIFERA CARNICA P. 1879)

Facelija (Phacelia tanacetifolia Benth.) je jednogodišnja zeljasta biljka koja u posljednje vrijeme privlači pozornost ratara i pčelara. Ratarima je zanimljiva jer im omogućava ispunjavanje uvjeta višestruke sukladnosti vezanih uz tlo (minimalna pokrivenost tla, očuvanje organske tvari u tlu i dr.) te se u budućnosti očekuje značajno povećanje ratarskih površina pod ovom kulturom. Kako je facelija izrazito medonosna kultura i proizvodi značajne količine nektara i peludi očekivano raste i interes pčelara za ovu kulturu. Cilj našeg istraživanja je utvrditi intenzitet aktivnosti sive pčele (Apis mellifera carnica P.1879) tijekom cvatnje facelije. Istraživanje je provedeno na tri parcele na pokusnoj lokaciji Poljoprivrednog fakulteta u Osijeku, na lokalitetu Vardarac. Praćenja su obavljena tijekom tri dana za vrijeme pune cvatnje facelije. Praćena je dnevna dinamika aktivnosti radilica na cvjetovima facelije, intenzitet sakupljanja nektara i peludi te prisutnost drugih oprašivača.SUMMARY Phacelia or California bluebell (Phacelia tanacetifolia Benth.) is an annual herbaceous plant that has recently attracted the attention of farmers and beekeepers. For farmers it is interesting because it allows them to meet the requirements of cross compliance relating to the soil (minimum coverage of soil, preservation of organic matter in soil, etc.), and in the future a significant increase in agricultural area under this crop is expected. As phacelia is a great source of nectar and pollen, beekeepers interest in this culture is growing. The aim of our research is to determine the intensity of activity of the carniolan bee (Apis mellifera carnica P.1879) during phacelia flowering. The study was conducted on three plots on the trial site, Faculty of Agriculture, at the site Vardarac. Monitoring was carried out during three days of phacelia flowering. Daily activity of workers on phacelia flowers, the intensity of collecting nectar and pollen, and the presence of other pollinators were monitored

Assessing European business cycles synchronization

Objectives: We analyzed the level of economic integration in Europe by analyzing the degree of growth cycle synchronization between 36 countries and its evolution over the past 17 years. Information whether the business cycles in a currency union are synchronized or not is of key importance for policymakers, because lack of synchronization will lead to sub-optimal common monetary policy. The article has three objectives: extend the literature on the business cycles synchronization by using dataset that includes countries that have never been analyzed before, test the robustness of the results to extraction and synchronization measures used and propose new method for assessing evolution of the synchronization over time. Data/methods: Quarterly GDP series from Eurostat database covering period 2000q1-2016q3 were used with two exceptions (industrial productions indexes for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro). Series were prepared by removing seasonal component using X13-ARIMA procedure. To assess robustness of synchronization tests results to alternative methods of detrending, business cycles were extracted using two filters: Corbae-Ouliaris ideal band filter and double Hodrick-Prescott filter. For assessing synchronization of the business cycles two methods were used: concordance index and cross-correlation function. Rolling cross-correlations at three lags were used to assess evolution of synchronization over time. Conclusions: Both concordance index and cross-correlations indicated that business cycles of most old EU members are synchronized with EU cycle. However, rolling cross-correlations suggested that this synchronization decreased after 2012. Majority of new EU members cycles were weakly or not at all synchronized with EU cycle until 2004/5. After 2004 most of them were synchronized in the same quarter but with greater variations between countries. For most of them after 2010/12 the degree of synchronization dropped significantly. These results are quite robust across the cycles extraction and synchronization measures used